Total Probability Theorem

Mathematically, probability means the chances of occurrence of an event. The probability of the likelihood of an event can be 0 or 1. Probability has a rule that relates conditional probability to marginal probability. This rule is known as the law of total probability. It divides the complete event into various sub-events so that finding the probability is easier for the complete event.

Law of total probability

Two events A and B, which have a sample space of S, then that sample space can be denoted as A ∩ B′, A ∩ B, A′ ∩ B, A′ ∩ B′. This set of events is known as a mutually disjoint event or pairwise disjoint event because of its disjoint property. Consider the Venn diagram as shown below. We use the law of total probability theorem in those cases where we need to find the probability of the likelihood of an event, and that likelihood depends upon the occurrence of other events.

Law of total probability statement

Consider a series of events C1, C2 … Cn that belongs to a sample space S. All the events have a non-zero occurrence probability. This means these events will occur at any cost. For any event A, which is associated with sample S, the mathematical expression according to the total theorem probability is given by:

Proof of total probability theorem

Example: 0.42 and 0.90 are the probabilities of completion of the job on time with and without rain, respectively. If the probability of occurrence of rain is 0.45, then determine the probability that the job will be completed on time.

Solution:

Let A be the event that the job will be completed on time and B be the event that it rains.
Then we have,
P (B) = 0.45,
P (no rain) = P (B′) = 1 – P (B) = 1 − 0.45 = 0.55

By multiplication law of probability,
P (A | B) = 0.42
P (A | B′) = 0.90

Since, events B and B′ are subsets of the sample space S, therefore, by total probability theorem,
P (A) = P (B) P (A | B) + P (B′)
P (A | B′) = 0.45 × 0.42 + 0.55 × 0.9
= 0.189 + 0.495 = 0.684

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Vacuoles What Is Adaptation Agricultural Practices Animal Kingdom Alimentary Canal Coelenterata Conservation of Forest and Wildlife Difference between Endosmosis and Exosmosis Difference between Afforestation and Deforestation Difference between Algae and Fungi Difference between Cereals and Pulses Difference Between Fragmentation and Regeneration Difference Between Neurosis and Psychosis Difference Between Nucleotide and Nucleoside

Difference Between Sea and Ocean

Difference Between Turtles and Tortoises

Difference Between Wildlife Sanctuary and National Park

Modes of Plant Reproduction

Ecological Pyramid and Its Types

Double Fertilization in Angiosperms

Ecosystem Enzymes

Fertilisation in Plants

Five Kingdoms Classification

Ganongs Potometer

Health and Hygiene

Herbivores and Carnivores

Heterotrophic Nutrition Human Digestive System

Vertebrates and Invertebrates

Morphology of Leaves

Modifications of Root

Phylum Aschelminthes

Diffusion

Osmosis

Prokaryotic Cells

Reproduction

Flora And Fauna

Overview of Food Chain

Difference Between Rabi And Kharif Crops

Vegetative Propagation Angiosperms Characteristics Soil Profile

Types of Pollution

Human Excretory System Sense Organs Rainwater Harvesting

Prokaryotic And Eukaryotic Cells

Living And Non Living Things

The Nucleus

Irrigation

Endoplasmic Reticulum

Between Data And Information

Mitochondria

Nitrogen Cycle

Diagram of Animal Cell

Meristematic Tissue

Law of Segregation Law of Dominance

Eukaryotic Cells

Sources Animal Plant Products

Photosynthesis Respiration Ozone Layer Depletion Kingdom Fungi Aerobic Anaerobic Respiration Cell Organelles Peristalsis Bacteria Oogenesis

Leaves Morphology Types Modification

Mitosis and Meiosis

How Do Organisms Reproduce

Diagram of Stomata

Monohybrid Cross Inheritance One Gene Mechanism of Breathing

Soil Erosion

Plasmolysis

Urine Formation Osmoregulation

Porifera

Flagella

Amoeba

Aerobic Respiration

Pteridophyta

Arteries And Veins Difference

Reflex Action

Stomata

Cell Wall

Diagram of Neuron

A Guide To Composition And Function Of Lymph

Difference Between Ligaments And Tendons

Insectivorous Plants

Nutrition Modes Living Organisms

Mendel Laws Of Inheritance

Nutrition In Amoeba

Calorific Value

Air Pollution Control

Fertilization In Plants

Binary Fission

Omnivores

Saprophytes

Asexual Reproduction

Deficiency Diseases

Light Reaction Vs Dark Reaction

Global Warming

Wildlife Sanctuary

Viviparous Oviparous Embryo Development

Food Preservation Methods Food Poisoning

Crops

Biofertilizers

Biodiversity Conservation

Difference Between Endocrine And Exocrine Glands

Greenhouse Effect Gases

Diagram Of Digestive System

Crop Production And Management

Types Of Pollination

Introduction and Characteristics of Living Beings Meristematic Cells Taxonomical Aids _Flora, Manual, Monograph And Catalogues Types of leaves structure of skeletal muscle spirometry human respiratory system herbarium dinoflagellates general characters and structure of leaf halophiles and their features Exchange of Gases Simple Permanent tissue Morphology of root and its types Complex permanent tissues Regions of Root History of classification and its need Breathing And Exchange Of Gases Transport of Gases Regulation of Respiration Disorders of Respiratory System Interaction of Haemoglobin with Other Gases Amniocentesis Anatomy of flowering plants ASSISTED REPRODUCTIVE TECHNOLOGIES (ARTs) Meristematic Cells Phloems Population explosion Reproductive Health RCH (Reproductive and Child Health Care) Medical termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Plant kingdom Biological Systems of Classification & Branches of Taxonomy Pteridophytes Gymnosperms Angiosperms Life cycle Patterns Anatomy of Roots Contraceptives Anatomy of stem Algae Bryophytes Tissues and its types STDs (Sexually Transmitted Diseases) Cell - The Basic Unit of Life & its Historical background Cell theory and its modification An Overview of Cell Secondary growth in dicot stem Tissue system and types Prokaryotic (Bacterial) cell Ribosomes Eukaryotic cell Cell: The basic unit of life Cytoskeleton Centrosome and Centriole Cilia and flagella Nucleus Chromosomes Evolution Movement and Locomotion Human Reproduction Absorption and Translocation of Solutes Soil as a reservoir of Essential Elements LOCOMOTION AND MOVEMENT Mechanism of Muscle Contraction Morphology in Flowering Plants Contractile proteins Muscular System Thyroid Puberty Hormones Origin of Universe Hypothalamus Cell wall Mitochondria Special Chromosomes Microbodies Introduction, Hydroponics and the study of mineral requirements of the plants Criteria of essentiality and Categorisation of Essential elements Deficiency symptoms of essential elements and toxicity The Stem The Root Cytoplasm and cell membrane Mineral Nutrition Disorders Related To Reproductive System Phylum Ctenophora Role of Macronutrients Role of Micronutrients Phylum - Coelenterata / Cnidaria Reptilia Aves Mammalia Anatomy of the leaf Animal kingdom Phylum Annelida Phylum Mollusca Phylum Echinodermata Vertebrata Chordates Disorders of circulatory system Abiotic Factors Male Reproductive System Kingdom Animalia Responses to Abiotic Factors Female Reproductive System Mammary Glands Pregnancy and Embryonic Development Cell Cancer Disorders of the Digestive System Infertility Morphology of Cockroach Blood and Plasma Alternation of Generations and Classification Predation Phaeophyceae and Rhodophyceae Phylum Coelenterata Phylum Porifera Phylum Platyhelminthes Chromosomal Disorders Competition Taxonomic Aids Alternation of generation in Pteridophytes Disorders of muscular and skeletal system General Characteristics of Living Digestive Glands Stomach Testis Buccal cavity Seed Common Diseases in Humans Permanent Tissue Permanent Tissues Xylem Pteridophytes Characteristics Parasitism and Commensalism Water Pollution and Its Control Differentiation, Dedifferentiation and Redifferentiation Organism and its Environment Carbohydrates Greenhouse Effect Gases Amino Acids Dynamic State of Body Constituents Photosynthesis Chloroplast Features of Living Beings Blood Group Lipids Kingdom Protista dense connective tissue connective tissue cartilage connective tissue blood plant cell viruses the stem Connective Tissue Bone Viroids Prions Lichens Animal cell Prokaryotic Cell Taxonomic Aids Herbarium and Museum Sphygmomanometer and ECG Population Attributes Noise pollution Diaphragm Parts of a Plant Photoperiodism Poultry Farming Nucleic Acids Cell Cycle Principles of Biotechnology Antibiotics IVF Glands Kranz Anatomy Sexual Reproduction in Plants Cytokinin Plant Development Biofertilizers Photorespiration Auxin Nutrient Cycling Types of Flowers Taxonomic Hierarchy and Categories Epidermal Tissue System Calyx and Corolla Ethylene Fertilization and Implantation Types of Fruits Inflorescence Types of Growth Macronutrients Family Liliaceae ETC and Oxidative Phosphorylation Classification of Wood Ground Tissue System Secondary Growth in Stem Plant Vascular System Electron Transport System Transpiration Difference Between Types of Cells Ovary Structure Birth Control Epithelial Tissue Endomembrane System Cell Envelopes and Cell Membrane Muscle Types Axial Skeleton Acquired Immunity Lung Volumes and Capacities Suspension and Migration Prokaryotic Cells

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